Unity Government and cease fire in Libya Distant Dream

Abdullah al-Thinni prime minister of internationally recognized Libyan government in Tobruk

Back on March 24 after UN-mediated talks, representatives of the conflicting parties received a list of ideas for a unity government in Libya. The government would consist of a Presidential Council with the main members being the president and his two deputies.

The council would be composed of independent personalities not associated with other parties. The House of Representatives (HoR) would be the legislative body representing all Libyans it would include members who were elected but did not join the HoR when it relocated to Tobruk. There would also be a High State Council and the Constitutional Drafting Assembly.

In a second stage of talks, a National Security Council and  Municipalities Council would be agreed upon. At the time, the ideas represented a remarkable breakthrough, but it is not clear to what degree either government or the armed forces of each side will accept the ideas or even if they do whether they can agree upon who should be in the Presidential Council. The recognition of the HoR as the legitimate parliament is a huge concession by the Tripoli representatives since the Tripoli government position has been that it is the legitimate government after the Libyan Supreme Court ruled last November that the June elections for the HoR last year were unconstitutional and the Tobruk government should be dissolved.

Later reports from the United Nations Support Mission (UNSMIL) in Libya indicate that there were changes made to the documents after discussion of the ideas with the two parties. The reports stressed that continued fighting while the dialogue continued made the discussions more difficult and that some on both sides wanted to scuttle the talks altogether. As is common with UN reports, those creating difficulties are never named unless they are the Islamic State. However,  the CIA-linked general Khalifa Hafter bombed Tripoli twice just before talks and in one case the bombing delayed the flight of Tripoli representatives to the talks. During the talks he has launched an offensive aimed at retaking Tripoli from the rival government. Haftar did this with the full support of the Al-Thinni internationally recognized government. Haftar has explicitly said that there would be no dialogue with the General National Council(Tripoli) government or with their main militia Libya Dawn saying that "there will be no dialogue with terrorism". Haftar fully intends to fight against the rival government under the rubric of fighting terrorism. He has been doing that since he launched his Operation Dignity last May that in effect initiated the present conflict.

Since late March there has been deafening silence on the progress toward forming the unity government. The only mention of the dialogue is in a report about the role of women in the dialogue in early April. The report praises the role of the only two women representatives taking part in the dialogue and peace talks. A spokesperson for the UN told a reporter that talks could resume as early as this weekend but there has been no date set yet nor has the location of the talks been announced.
   
Frederic Wehrey, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said: "There are pragmatics and moderates on both sides who want to end the fighting and believe that the fight against extremism is through a unified government. But there are also hardliners who stand to lose personally if there is a ceasefire and new government."  However, the supreme hardliner happens to be Khalifa Haftar the commander of the armed forces of the internationally recognized government who has the support of Prime Minister Abdullah Thinni.

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Recently, when the UN peace envoy Bernardino Leon arrived in Tobruk to hold talks with the speaker of the HoR, he was unable to exit the airport due to protesters and his plane left again.
The continued fighting between the military forces of each rival government and Haftar's open dismissal of dialogue and deliberate attacks before and during the UN dialogue show that a negotiated solution is unlikely. The long silence about the progress of the talks by the UN is also an ominous sign. We will see soon see if there is any hope after the new talks get underway.

Resources:
http://zeenews.india.com/news/world/libya-risks-long-war-extremist-rise-as-talks-drag-on_1576394.html
http://www.lobelog.com/haftar-factor-might-derail-libyan-peace-process/
http://www.unsmil.unmissions.org/Default.aspx?tabid=3561&ctl=Details&mid=8549&ItemID=2013641&language=en-US