Category: Libya-peace-talks

Unity Government and cease fire in Libya Distant Dream

12/4/2015

Abdullah al-Thinni prime minister of internationally recognized Libyan government in Tobruk

Back on March 24 after UN-mediated talks, representatives of the conflicting parties received a list of ideas for a unity government in Libya. The government would consist of a Presidential Council with the main members being the president and his two deputies.

The council would be composed of independent personalities not associated with other parties. The House of Representatives (HoR) would be the legislative body representing all Libyans it would include members who were elected but did not join the HoR when it relocated to Tobruk. There would also be a High State Council and the Constitutional Drafting Assembly.

In a second stage of talks, a National Security Council and Municipalities Council would be agreed upon. At the time, the ideas represented a remarkable breakthrough, but it is not clear to what degree either government or the armed forces of each side will accept the ideas or even if they do whether they can agree upon who should be in the Presidential Council. The recognition of the HoR as the legitimate parliament is a huge concession by the Tripoli representatives since the Tripoli government position has been that it is the legitimate government after the Libyan Supreme Court ruled last November that the June elections for the HoR last year were unconstitutional and the Tobruk government should be dissolved.

Later reports from the United Nations Support Mission (UNSMIL) in Libya indicate that there were changes made to the documents after discussion of the ideas with the two parties. The reports stressed that continued fighting while the dialogue continued made the discussions more difficult and that some on both sides wanted to scuttle the talks altogether. As is common with UN reports, those creating difficulties are never named unless they are the Islamic State. However, the CIA-linked general Khalifa Hafter bombed Tripoli twice just before talks and in one case the bombing delayed the flight of Tripoli representatives to the talks. During the talks he has launched an offensive aimed at retaking Tripoli from the rival government. Haftar did this with the full support of the Al-Thinni internationally recognized government. Haftar has explicitly said that there would be no dialogue with the General National Council(Tripoli) government or with their main militia Libya Dawn saying that "there will be no dialogue with terrorism". Haftar fully intends to fight against the rival government under the rubric of fighting terrorism. He has been doing that since he launched his Operation Dignity last May that in effect initiated the present conflict.

Since late March there has been deafening silence on the progress toward forming the unity government. The only mention of the dialogue is in a report about the role of women in the dialogue in early April. The report praises the role of the only two women representatives taking part in the dialogue and peace talks. A spokesperson for the UN told a reporter that talks could resume as early as this weekend but there has been no date set yet nor has the location of the talks been announced.

Frederic Wehrey, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said: "There are pragmatics and moderates on both sides who want to end the fighting and believe that the fight against extremism is through a unified government. But there are also hardliners who stand to lose personally if there is a ceasefire and new government." However, the supreme hardliner happens to be Khalifa Haftar the commander of the armed forces of the internationally recognized government who has the support of Prime Minister Abdullah Thinni.

Recently, when the UN peace envoy Bernardino Leon arrived in Tobruk to hold talks with the speaker of the HoR, he was unable to exit the airport due to protesters and his plane left again.
The continued fighting between the military forces of each rival government and Haftar's open dismissal of dialogue and deliberate attacks before and during the UN dialogue show that a negotiated solution is unlikely. The long silence about the progress of the talks by the UN is also an ominous sign. We will see soon see if there is any hope after the new talks get underway.

Resources:
http://zeenews.india.com/news/world/libya-risks-long-war-extremist-rise-as-talks-drag-on_1576394.html
http://www.lobelog.com/haftar-factor-might-derail-libyan-peace-process/
http://www.unsmil.unmissions.org/Default.aspx?tabid=3561&ctl=Details&mid=8549&ItemID=2013641&language=en-US

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Libyan peace talks resume in Morocco

22/3/2015

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John Kerry with Tobruk Libyan Prime Minister Abdullah al Thinni

As representatives of the two rival LIbyan governments gathered in Morocco near Rabat, the UN envoy to Libya, Bernardino Leon, urged them to try to agree on a unity government during the three days of scheduled talks that began on Friday March 20th.

The talks are also aiming at a ceasefire between the associated military forces of the two governments. The internationally recognized government is located in Tobruk with the prime minister, Abdullah al-Thinni, whereas the rival government is in the capital Tripoli, with the prime minister Omar al-Hasi. The Libya Dawn militia are the main military forces associated with Tripoli while the former militia of CIA-linked General Khalifa Haftar now part of the Libyan armed forces are associated with the Tobruk government.

The dialogue has been ongoing since last September with few positive results although after a recent set of tallks a ceasefire was agreed to by both sides. However, Haftar insisted that the war against terror would not stop and he kept up his attacks on the umbrella group of Islamists who were occupying parts of Benghazi. The other side then also carried out attacks. Before another recent set of talks the Tobruk government attacked Metiga airport, the one functioning airport in the capital. When the talks were to resume, the Tobruk government again attacked the Tripoli airport causing the Tripoli delegation to be late for the talks. The talks started on Friday a day later.

The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) condemned the airport attacks but the UN's only form of punishment is a tongue-lashing since none of the big powers are willing to take any action against Haftar or the Tobruk government. UNSMIL and Leon have constantly urged both sides not to engage in battle as this is inconsistent with the aim of the dialogue to find a political solution and agreement on a ceasefire. However, the Tobruk government also began an offensive south of Tripoli. The Al-Thinni government said on Facebook that it had started an offensive to liberate Tripoli and its suburbs. This is completely contrary to any idea of a dialogue. The UN envoy can do nothing except express his disapproval of these actions. He called the clashes unacceptable and a serious threat to the dialogue.

The UN almost never assigns blame. Leon said that "both political actors and military actors should stop such actions". Leon does not say that the Libyan government bombed the Tripoli airport or started an offensive to take Tripoli. He says only that both actors should stop! UN reports often seem to come from another planet. They do, from Planet Correct Political Protocol. Leon, the UN envoy, is ever optimistic. He is hoping to have documents on a national unity government, security arrangements, and a national unity government ready and agreed upon by Sunday. With the ongoing attacks by the Islamic State in Libya and Tunisia Leon claims that the talks should be in a decisive round.

Certainly, it is in the interests of both sides to fight against the Islamic State(IS) since IS has launched attacks against both, in Tripoli-held areas as well as areas controlled by the Tobruk government. However, Haftar and the Al Thinni government see their fight against Tripoli as itself part of the war on terror. They have requested that the arms embargo that prevents shipments of weapons to Libya be lifted so that they can obtain weapons for their war on terror. Haftar together with his supporter President el-Sissi of Egypt cannot understand why the Libyan government is not getting the full support of the west in Haftar's war on Islamic terrorists.

So far the US and the UK and many other countries are pinning hopes on the formation of a unity government and a political solution that would lead to a unified battle against the Islamic State. Khalifa Haftar and the Tobruk government have other ideas. For them the war against the IS and against the Tripoli government and its militia are all part of the war on terror.

The Tobruk government refuses to talk directly with representatives of the Tripoli government since that government will not recognize Tobruk as the sole legitimate government. The head of the Tripoli representatives was in favour of direct talks between the two sides but the Tobruk government will not talk to a group that refuses to recognize it as the sole legitimate government. The Tripoli government does not recognize Tobruk because back on November 6th last year, the Libyan Supreme Court ruled that the June elections were unconstitutional and that the Tobruk government should be dissolved. The UN said it was studying the matter as of last November. They have made no further statement on the issue.

The important powers do not want them to.

They are carrying on as usual with the press dutifully following along calling the Tobruk government the Libyan government and almost never mentioning the court decision in articles. Ironically, Al Thinni was prime minister of the Libyan transition government when last May Haftar launched Operation Dignity by attacking two Islamist bases in Benghazi. He called Haftar's action illegal and noted that there was a warrant out for Haftar's arrest for an attempted coup in February. Soon after Haftar's allies burned down parliament as part of Operation Dignity.

How things change.

Now the same Al-Thinni is prime minister of the Tobruk government. Instead of carrying out the arrest warrant he has made Haftar head of the armed forces. Haftar has shown nothing but contempt for the dialogue process describing the dialogue as talking with terrorists. Even if there is a political settlement and the Tobruk government agrees to a political solution, it seems unlikely that Haftar will stop trying to defeat the Tripoli government forces.

Additional Sources:
http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2015/mar/20/un-envoy-opens-decisive-phase-in-libya-peace-talks/
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/africa/2015/03/20/Libyan-army-forces-advance-close-to-Tripoli-airport.html

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Unity Government and cease fire in Libya Distant Dream

Libyan peace talks resume in Morocco

Ken Hanly

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