Category: UNSMIL

Unity Government and cease fire in Libya Distant Dream

12/4/2015

Abdullah al-Thinni prime minister of internationally recognized Libyan government in Tobruk

Back on March 24 after UN-mediated talks, representatives of the conflicting parties received a list of ideas for a unity government in Libya. The government would consist of a Presidential Council with the main members being the president and his two deputies.

The council would be composed of independent personalities not associated with other parties. The House of Representatives (HoR) would be the legislative body representing all Libyans it would include members who were elected but did not join the HoR when it relocated to Tobruk. There would also be a High State Council and the Constitutional Drafting Assembly.

In a second stage of talks, a National Security Council and Municipalities Council would be agreed upon. At the time, the ideas represented a remarkable breakthrough, but it is not clear to what degree either government or the armed forces of each side will accept the ideas or even if they do whether they can agree upon who should be in the Presidential Council. The recognition of the HoR as the legitimate parliament is a huge concession by the Tripoli representatives since the Tripoli government position has been that it is the legitimate government after the Libyan Supreme Court ruled last November that the June elections for the HoR last year were unconstitutional and the Tobruk government should be dissolved.

Later reports from the United Nations Support Mission (UNSMIL) in Libya indicate that there were changes made to the documents after discussion of the ideas with the two parties. The reports stressed that continued fighting while the dialogue continued made the discussions more difficult and that some on both sides wanted to scuttle the talks altogether. As is common with UN reports, those creating difficulties are never named unless they are the Islamic State. However, the CIA-linked general Khalifa Hafter bombed Tripoli twice just before talks and in one case the bombing delayed the flight of Tripoli representatives to the talks. During the talks he has launched an offensive aimed at retaking Tripoli from the rival government. Haftar did this with the full support of the Al-Thinni internationally recognized government. Haftar has explicitly said that there would be no dialogue with the General National Council(Tripoli) government or with their main militia Libya Dawn saying that "there will be no dialogue with terrorism". Haftar fully intends to fight against the rival government under the rubric of fighting terrorism. He has been doing that since he launched his Operation Dignity last May that in effect initiated the present conflict.

Since late March there has been deafening silence on the progress toward forming the unity government. The only mention of the dialogue is in a report about the role of women in the dialogue in early April. The report praises the role of the only two women representatives taking part in the dialogue and peace talks. A spokesperson for the UN told a reporter that talks could resume as early as this weekend but there has been no date set yet nor has the location of the talks been announced.

Frederic Wehrey, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said: "There are pragmatics and moderates on both sides who want to end the fighting and believe that the fight against extremism is through a unified government. But there are also hardliners who stand to lose personally if there is a ceasefire and new government." However, the supreme hardliner happens to be Khalifa Haftar the commander of the armed forces of the internationally recognized government who has the support of Prime Minister Abdullah Thinni.

Recently, when the UN peace envoy Bernardino Leon arrived in Tobruk to hold talks with the speaker of the HoR, he was unable to exit the airport due to protesters and his plane left again.
The continued fighting between the military forces of each rival government and Haftar's open dismissal of dialogue and deliberate attacks before and during the UN dialogue show that a negotiated solution is unlikely. The long silence about the progress of the talks by the UN is also an ominous sign. We will see soon see if there is any hope after the new talks get underway.

Resources:
http://zeenews.india.com/news/world/libya-risks-long-war-extremist-rise-as-talks-drag-on_1576394.html
http://www.lobelog.com/haftar-factor-might-derail-libyan-peace-process/
http://www.unsmil.unmissions.org/Default.aspx?tabid=3561&ctl=Details&mid=8549&ItemID=2013641&language=en-US

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UN peace talks Libya

13/3/2015

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UN Logo on building in Germany

The UN has been sponsoring peace talks to find a political solution to the conflict between the two competing governments in the country and their respective supporting militia.

The internationally recognized government is located in Tobruk in the east of the country and the prime minister is Abdullah al-Thinni. The militia associated with the government is now integrated into the armed forces of the Tobruk government and the leader of the militia CIA-linked General Khalifa Haftar is now commander in chief of the army. The competing government is in Tripoli with the prime minister Omar al-Hasi and one of the main militia umbrella groups Libya Dawn.

Peace talks first started last September but did not involve representatives of the Tripoli government. However recently that government and Libya Dawn agreed to a truce after one set of talks. The talks two main aims are to form a unity government and stop fighting between the two groups. The Tobruk government a couple of days later also agreed to a truce, with the exception that it would continue to pursue terrorists. Haftar considers virtually any group that uses force against him as terrorist. He continued his offensive in the city of Benghazi. The truce was violated by the other side as well.

The Tripoli government agreed to attend recent talks as did LIbya Dawn. However, the Tobruk side decided to boycott the talks. No doubt pressure from western and Arab supporters caused them to change their mind. Now the Tobruk government has asked the UN to postpone continuation of the talks that were to resume on Wednesday. Farraj Hashem the spokesperson for the Tobruk House of Representatives said: "We request postponement of the dialogue session for a week to discuss the next government's roadmap, jurisdictions, timeframe, and relationship with the House of Representatives," The talks had already been paused since last Saturday after three days of talks just outside of Rabat in Morocco. This pause was for the very purpose that Tobruk says will now require a week.

A separate dialogue took place between six parties and five Libyan activists in Algiers, the capital of Algeria, on March 10th and 11th. At that meeting the UN envoy to Libya Bernardino Leon again stated his resolve to continue a dialogue to find a political solution to the crises. As is its custom, the UN statement on the meeting gives little detail. It does not even bother to say who the participants are. It is not clear how much effect any commitments this group might make will have on the ground in Libya. The group agreed to protect the national and territorial unity, sovereignty and independence of Libya. They rejected all forms of foreign interference. This is all pie in the sky. There already is considerable foreign interference. Qatar, and to some extent Turkey and Sudan intervene on behalf of the Tripoli government and there is obvious collaboration between Egypt, the UAE on behalf of Haftar and the Libyan government. This included bombing attacks on Tripoli and elsewhere against Libya Dawn. The group also stated that they were fully committed to dialogue as a way out of the crisis.

The United Nations Security Mission(UNSMIL) in LIbya released a statement about the talks that ended last Saturday the following Monday.As usual, the report hides more information than it releases. The report emphasizes that the agreed agenda was to concentrate on forming a unity government and obtaining a ceasefire, but the statement notes:

" During the course of the discussions in Morocco, one of the parties requested that UNSMIL convey to the other participants a proposal for the resolution of the Libyan crisis. UNSMIL expressed the view that the proposal represented a departure from the agenda which all the participants had previously agreed to."

Note that the statement does not say who the party was who made the proposal or what the proposal was. There appears to be no press reports of what these proposals might be that I could find. The only proposals I found that were covered had to with the nature of the unity government, which a Muslim Brotherhood associated group suggested could be a transitional council. This proposal fits in with the agenda item of a unity government. I expect that the proposal might have come from the Tobruk government and had to do with concentrating upon a campaign against terrorism. Terrorism especially that of the Islamic State is a real problem in Libya but it needs to be tackled by a unity government since both competing parties are suffering from those attacks in areas they control. I expect that Haftar and the Tobruk government are hoping that western countries will support them and they will wage a campaign not just against the Islamic State but all Islamists as Haftar has been doing for some time. This includes the Tripoli government. So far fortunately most western countries notably the US and UK have not thrown their support behind Haftar but for now at least demand that the dialogue process continue. Jason Pack has an interesting article on these issues that I include in the references.

Sources
http://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/476506--libyas-brotherhood-makes-bid-to-end-political-rift
http://www.libya-analysis.com/packs-publications/
http://www.unsmil.unmissions.org/Default.aspx?tabid=3561&ctl=Details&mid=8549&ItemID=2010606&language=en-US
http://www.unsmil.unmissions.org/Default.aspx?tabid=3561&ctl=Details&mid=8549&ItemID=2011251&language=en-US
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2015/Mar-11/290428-libyan-parties-in-algiers-urge-immediate-ceasefire.ashx
http://allafrica.com/stories/201503120776.html

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Unity Government and cease fire in Libya Distant Dream

UN peace talks Libya

Ken Hanly

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