As the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs is rising and Canadian production from the oil sands begins to come on line again after recent fires, the price of oil is beginning to fall. Oil prices were down 3 percent on Friday. It appears that weekend profit-taking in Brent and US crude futures also helped drive prices down. Brent's front-month price was down $1.41 at $50.54 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell $1.49 to $49.07. This is the largest drop since early April. For the entire week, however, Brent rose 2 percent and WTI about one. Crude futures are also almost 90 percent higher than the 13-year lows during the winter as supply disruptions in Nigeria, Canada, Libya, and Venezuela drove prices up. Prices had earlier gone down to below $30 dollars a barrel. In the US, drillers added three oil rigs in the week up to June 10. In the previous week, nine rigs had been added. Tariq Zahir a trader in WTI futures said: "This looks like the beginning of a trend that will translate to the slowing down of U.S. crude production declines. I'm adding to my short positions in spreads." Scott Shelton, energy broker with ICAP in Durham, North Carolina said that the rise in rig counts so far will not significantly change the supply of crude. The price of oil has almost doubled from the lows reached in the middle of January this year. Brent rose above $50 a barrel and stayed there. WTI has risen considerably as well. While there have been serious disruptions of supply in Canada and Nigeria and little production in Libya that helped eliminate the oil surplus, Canadian production is already beginning to come back on line. Production in the US has just risen for the first time in three months. In spite of the outages, the IEA still sees global inventories as rising through August. Any improvement in the situation in Nigeria or Libya could see prices fall further. For the longer term, new discoveries off the coast of Newfoundland may further add to production already coming from the nearby Hibernia field. Statoil, the Norwegian oil company, claims a 19-month drilling program discovered oil at two location in the Bay du Nord area in the large Flemish Pass area. Statoil says that it appears that reserves at the Bay du Nord side were likely at the lower end of the estimated 300 to 600 million barrels. Paul Fulton, president of Statoil Canada said: "The recent drilling program has been critical to Statoil's continued assessment of Bay du Nord and work is underway to evaluate the results related to proceeding with a potential Statoil-operated development in the Flemish Pass Basin".
1 Comment
The Presidency Council (PC) of the UN-backed Libyan Government of National Accord led by PM Faiez Serraj, has condemned the murder of 12 former Gadaffi soldiers. The soldiers were just released last week by a court. The PC ordered a formal investigation into the murders to find out what exactly happened and who was responsible. At first, twitter was filled with all sorts of different accounts with some even thinking that it was simply a rumor spread by pro-Gadaffi outlets. However, there are now reports both by the Libya Observer and the Libya Herald that agree on many aspects of what happened including the figure of 12 bodies being found. Earlier accounts were as high as 17. A press conference was held by a spokesperson for the Attorney General's office. He confirmed that 12 bodies were discovered yesterday. Six in Wadi Rabie near Ain Zara. Three had been thrown from a moving vehicle near the morgue at Tripoli Central Hospital, and a final three thrown in the same way near the morgue at the Tripoli Medical Center. All 12 had been shot in the head according to a forensic doctor. The bodies showed signs of torture. There were another seven soldiers who were also ordered released but their whereabouts are not known. The killings are worsening the political situation for the GNA and presidential council as it has legitimized a number of militia. It is believed militia were involved. Ali Gatrani a member of the PC also blamed the PC for creating the conditions for the murders to happen but claimed that he should not be blamed since he has been boycotting the PC. He suggested that the soldiers were killed in jail. However, Ali Al-Saadi who is head of the prison where most of the soldiers were incarcerated claims that after the court decision the prisoners were released into their families' care and had left the prison with them. Strange that there are as yet no reports as to what family members of those murdered have to say about what might have happened. The prisoners were killed the same day they were released. The Special Representative of the Secretary-General(SRSG), Martin Kobler, also condemned the killings. The former soldiers killed and seven others had been accused of killing demonstrators in February of 2011. Families of the protesters who had been killed filed a lawsuit against the soldiers who were part of the Revolutionary Work Team. The suit accused them of murder and torture. The case went to court in 2014 and took two years to adjudicate. A judge issued a resolution that all be released although their passports were to be handed over to the AG's office which the families did upon which the AG ordered them released. It remains unclear exactly what happened after that. Supporters of commander in chief of the Libyan National Army (LNA), Khalifa Haftar, will no doubt claim that the killings show that Haftar is correct that the militia need to be disbanded and that the GNA is at the mercy of the various militia it supports. He wants to remain commander in chief of the army within the GNA, but the Libyan Political Agreement gives the role of commander in chief to the PC until a new commander is appointed. Al-Bunyan Al-Marsoos (Solid Structure) forces, mostly militia from Misrata have captured the port in the last remaining stronghold of the Islamic State, the city of Sirte. The remaining Islamic State fighters are now entirely surrounded within the city. Many had already escaped the city. Earlier numbers placed the numbers of IS fighters at up to 6,000 but this appears an exaggeration. A residential area in the east of the city was also taken. The fall of Sirte would leave IS without any significant territory in Libya although it could still launch terror attacks and has some presence in Benghazi yet it would seem. Sirte was the home town of Gadaffi and there are many loyalists there. Fighting is said to be raging around a conference center, the Islamic State headquarters. Air strikes were carried out on the center. It is reported that 11 of the militia forces were killed and 45 wounded on Friday. Hospitals are overcrowded and in need of medical supplies and apparently planes carrying wounded to Italy have not been allowed to land. Flights to Italy and elsewhere to treat the wounded are being blocked by NATO as mentioned in this tweet: "Outrageous: UN US EU NATO applaud Misrata for battling #ISIS @ Sirte #Libya while blocking evacuation of war wounded" Brett McGurk, Barack Obama's anti-ISIS envoy said that numbers of ISIS in Libya had probably plateaued at 5,000. There are certainly not that many left in Sirte. McGurk said:“I just don’t want to get ahead of the situation because it remains pretty fluid. But we’re encouraged by the progress they’re making. Once you have a credible force on the ground that moves against them, there is a chance that they could crack pretty quickly". A recent tweet notes: ISIS in Sirte and their territory that a month ago extended 250km along the coast. Now ISIS is besieged in 20km-square area within #Sirte" The appended map also shows the huge shrinkage in territory controlled by ISIS since May. McGurk is behind the times. Another recent tweet indicates that clashes are ongoing on all fronts: Clashes all fronts East, West & South, heavy clashes within the city of #Sirte - suggestions city will be liberated within days/hrs. #Libya McGurk said that the US was willing to work with General Haftar, commander in chief of the Libyan National Army associated with the rival House of Representatives (HoR) But McGurk made it clear that Haftar had to recognize the authority of the UN-backed Government of National Accord(GNA). Haftar has made it clear he will not do so until the HoR gives a vote of confidence in the GNA. This is supposed to take place on Monday. There have been many meetings most without a quorum and two disrupted but without any vote. Haftar has said he will not join with GNA forces until all the militias are disbanded. That is not likely to happen any time soon as the GNA depends upon them for security. Haftar announced about three weeks ago he would liberate Sirte but has not had any clashes with them meanwhile, the Misrata militia from the west and the Petroleum Facilities Guard in the east closed in on Sirte. Barack Obama has always vowed to end the Afghan war, but the White House recently announced that the U.S. role in the 15-year conflict will expand. Josh Earnest, press secretary to President Obama, said that US forces would be playing a greater role in helping Afghan troops be more effective on the battlefield. He said the new support would come as "advice and assistance" as well as "occasionally accompanying them in their operations". The Afghan forces are having difficulty containing the Taliban who are carrying out numerous attacks including on the capital of Kabul. Obama denied that Obama was restarting the combat role of the US that ended in 2014. Nevertheless, at least 9,800 US forces still remain in the country in an advisory role since 2015. They were only authorized to target Taliban in defense, or to protect Afghan troops. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter said that the new order was issued to General Sean MacFarland, who is the US commander in Afghanistan. Rosalind Jordan of Al Jazeera said the US defense department had been wanting to carry out the extended mission for months: "The concern about the resurgence of the Taliban has been growing in the Pentagon." The new plan will also include "strategic strikes" she claimed to weaken the Taliban. The US does not want to see the Afghan military "be caught short" as the summer fighting season enters high gear. At its peak in March 2011, the US had around 100,000 troops in Afghanistan. More than 2,000 soldiers were killed. However, just last year, the Afghans lost 5,000 troops causing Obama to postpone any further withdrawal of troops. Earnest said that in addition to an increase in air strikes, restrictions would be loosened on what ground troops could do. He said special forces would be more proactive and even engage in occasional combat operations alongside Afghan forces. Lt. Gen. John Nicholson wants to ramp operations back up as the Taliban seize more territory. It is reported that Nicholson wants to keep about 9,800 troops in Afghanistan until at least the end of the year. They could stay even longer. The Global Peace Index claims that political instability, terrorism, and conflict cost the global economy a humongous $13.6 trillion last year alone. The report for this year can be found here. The 2016 index analyzed 163 countries and territories. Syria was rated the least peaceful country. South Sudan was next and then Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia. On the opposite end of the scale are Iceland first, then Denmark, Austria, New Zealand and Portugal. While 81 countries improved their scores this was offset by greater deterioration in 79 other countries. The report says:"The historic 10-year deterioration in peace has largely been driven by the intensifying conflicts in the Mena region. Terrorism is also at an all-time high, battle deaths from conflict are at a 25-year high, and the number of refugees and displaced people are at a level not seen in 60 years. Notably, the sources for these three dynamics are intertwined and driven by a small number of countries, demonstrating the global repercussions of breakdowns in peacefulness.” "Mena" refers to Middle East North Africa. Steve Killelea, founder of the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) the think tank that produces the index claimed that the conflicts within Mena countries are being felt beyond their borders. He says that external bodies are becoming increasingly involved and have the potential for producing "proxy wars". Libya is a good example. Increasing conflicts produce huge increases in refugee. The report claims that in 2015 a record 59.5 million people were either refugees, internally displaced or seeking asylum. Nine countries now have more than ten percent of their population displaced. In South Sudan and Somalia 20 percent have fled their homes. In Syria more than 60 percent have abandoned their residences. The sums lost to conflict represent 13.3 percent of global GDP. Per person the cost is $ 1,876. The amount is eleven times that spent on foreign and direct investment. The UN expects to spend $8 billion on peacekeeping this year, actually an increase of 17 percent from last year. However, this is about one percent of the US defense budget. Killelea argues that the sums spent on peacekeeping are quite small compared to the savings that peace brings. He notes: “Addressing the global disparity in peace and achieving an overall 10% decrease in the economic impact of violence would produce a peace dividend of $1.36tn. This is approximately equivalent to the size of world food exports.” The Peace Index was first published in 2008 and ranks nations on a peace scale according to safety, security in society, levels of domestic and international conflict, and militarization. |
Like this writer's work please donate:
Ken Hanly
Ken is a retired philosophy professor living in the boondocks of Manitoba, Canada, with his Filipina wife. He enjoys reading the news and writing articles. Politically Ken is on the far left of the political spectrum on many issues.
Archives
November 2016
Categories
All
|