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Obama has just announced that he will provide Egypt with the $1.3 billion in military aid that had been suspended. He is providing it to Egypt so that it can fight against terrorism. Egyptian president el-Sisi is a great supporter of Haftar. One can expect that US arms from Egypt will be used not only to fight the Islamic State in Libya but also help Haftar in the fight against Libya Dawn and the Tripoli government. No word the last few days about any further progress in the peace talks. Libya Dawn has agreed to withdraw from positions it used to attack the eastern oil ports and the Tripoli government has sacked their prime minister partly because he was allegedly blocking the peace process.
However, al-Thinni can publicly support military action against Tripoli while the peace talks are going on and Haftar can snub his nose at the UN, but the international community which supposedly supports the dialogue and a unity government is hardly critical at all. Sources; http://kenthink7.blogspot.ca/2015/03/bombing-of-tripoli-airport-by-haftar.html https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2015/03/31/obama-lifts-freeze-weapons-transfer-egyptian-dictator/ http://kenthink7.blogspot.ca/2015/03/general-haftar-rises-from-failed-coup.html http://en.starafrica.com/news/libya-un-mission-welcomes-ceasefire-withdrawal-of-forces-in-sidra-oil-crescent-region.html http://www.libyaherald.com/2015/04/01/libya-crises-is-a-security-and-legitimacy-crises-not-a-political-crises-https://www.libyaherald.com/2015/04/01/thinni-meets-with-32-ambassadors-to-libya-in-tunisia/
When Hadi and others in talks brokered by the UN failed to negotiate a government acceptable to the Houthis, they seized power and have been setting up their own government. Hadi was able to flee from house arrest to Aden but he was driven out of his retreat although he is still in the Aden area. He has been desperately seeking help from other countries and the UN.
For several days Saudi Arabia had been moving heavy military equipment including artillery near the border with Yemen. The Saudis are very concerned about successful advances of the Houthis who have the support of Iran. However, they also have the support of former president Saleh and a considerable number of the armed forces. The Saudis and GCC will not likely be able to simply march in and restore the rule of their favorite, Hadi , as they were able to do to control Houthi protests against the Bahraini ruler in Bahrain. The Saudi action could very well create significant protests in the eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia site of significant oil resources and with Shiite majorities. The US has evacuated its special forces from Yemen as Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP) advanced close to their base. AQAP has allied with Sunni tribes in some areas to check the advance of the Houthis. The US has not been involved in the operations although until recently they continued carrying out drone strikes against AQAP. Suicide attacks in two Sanaa mosques that killed at least 137 people and wounded another 345 were claimed to be the work of the Islamic State. The Saudi incursion may be quite costly to them if they send in ground forces. Instead of working for a political solution the Saudis will simply add another dimension of violence and create a wider civil war. Additional Sources: http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2015/03/saudi-ambassador-announces-military-operation-yemen-150325234138956.html http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/24/saudi-arabia-military-yemen_n_6935702.html http://rt.com/news/244117-saudi-arabia-bombs-yemen-houthis/ Many analysts worry that there could be revenge attacks by Shia militias against Sunni inhabitants and many civilian casualties. If air support is called in to a battle within the city there is bound to be considerable damage to infrastructure and remaining civilians may be casualties.
Alaa Makki a member of the mostly Sunni Islamic Party said: "There is a minimum amount of Daesh (IS) fighters in Tikrit. They are controlling the situation there--wow!" However, the Iraqi Interior Minister said that the Iraqi forces wanted to give citizens a chance to evacuate their areas and also wanted to preserve the infrastructure of the city as well as ensuring the least number of lives lost among the security forces. The IS has booby-trapped roads and buildings leading into the city slowing the advance the Iraqi forces. Outside the city Saddam Hussein's tomb is said to have been badly damaged in fact virtually destroyed. Tikrit is in the heart of the Sunni triangle where the majority of citizens are Sunni and who were strong supporters of Hussein. The apparent difficulty in retaking Tikrit places in doubt whether the larger IS-controlled city of Mosul will be retaken any time soon. Sources: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/17/world/middleeast/islamic-state-tikrit-iraq-offensive.html?_r=0 http://news.antiwar.com/2015/03/16/iraq-halts-tikrit-offensive-leaving-isis-in-control/ http://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/iraq-puts-tikrit-offensive-on-hold http://news.sky.com/story/1446189/tikrit-offensive-on-hold-so-civilians-can-flee
The last "moderate" group of rebels in northern Syria Harakat Hazzm gave up their headquarters to Al Nusra including a warehouse full of US weapons. Many of these moderate rebels decided to join Al Nusra.
Given the increasing shortage of moderate rebels, the solution that the US may adopt is to simply redefine who are the "moderates". In an astonishing set of remarks in a recent interview, James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence said: "So there are some portion of our oppositions who are regarded as moderate. Moderate these days is increasingly becoming anyone who is not affiliated with ISIL. And so, you know, we are attempting to engage with them, and that's the whole point of the train and equip proposal -- project that the Department of Defense is gearing up for, is to vet, recruit and train and equip opposition in sufficient size and capability to actually make a military difference." The Nusra Front is not affiliated with the Islamic State and has clashed with the Islamic State. It is associated with Al Qaeda which opposes the Islamic State. Just what is needed, Al Qaeda moderates, fighters that can make a military difference. |
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Ken Hanly
Ken is a retired philosophy professor living in the boondocks of Manitoba, Canada, with his Filipina wife. He enjoys reading the news and writing articles. Politically Ken is on the far left of the political spectrum on many issues.
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